Picture this: It’s the last Friday in November, and you’re braving the cold, coffee in hand, ready to dive into the Black Friday frenzy. You’ve had your eye on that big-ticket item all year, and now, with the promise of unbeatable discounts, you’re ready to pounce. But here’s the twist—what if I told you that some of those jaw-dropping “deals” might not actually save you money? In fact, you might be paying the same, or even more, than you would have a month earlier.
This tactic, known as “price jacking,” involves raising prices prior to sales events to make subsequent discounts appear more substantial. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority found that 98% of Black Friday deals were the same price or cheaper at other times in the year, indicating that these “deals” aren’t always genuine.
Retailers have been playing this game for years. Prices are quietly inflated in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, creating the illusion of steep discounts when the “sale” prices are unveiled. The result? Crowds rush in, wallets out, convinced they’re snagging a bargain.
Now, let’s shift gears. The current housing market has a similar dynamic, and many buyers are falling into the same trap.
The Housing Market’s “Black Friday Sale”
In today’s real estate world, interest rates are the shiny sale sign that has everyone’s attention. Many buyers are waiting for the anticipated “deal” of lower interest rates, predicted to arrive this spring. The thinking goes: “If I wait, I’ll pay less because my monthly mortgage payments will shrink with lower interest rates.”
But there’s a catch—and it’s a big one.
When interest rates drop, demand skyrockets. More buyers flood the market, all chasing a limited number of homes. What happens next is as predictable as a line outside a department store at midnight on Black Friday: prices go up.
This isn’t speculation; it’s a pattern we’ve seen time and again. With increased demand and finite supply, sellers capitalize by raising asking prices. Suddenly, that “deal” you thought you were getting with lower interest rates is offset—or worse, outstripped—by inflated home prices.
The Cost of Waiting: A Tale of Two Buyers
Let’s break it down with an example. Buyer A decides to buy a home today in a quieter market. They lock in at a higher interest rate, but with less competition, they negotiate a price of $2.5M.
Buyer B waits for the anticipated spring market, where interest rates have dropped. But with 10 other buyers bidding on the same property, they end up paying $2.75M—$250,000 more! Even with the lower interest rate, Buyer B’s monthly payments are nearly identical to Buyer A’s, and they’ve spent more upfront.
What’s more, Buyer A benefits from immediate equity in a quieter market. Meanwhile, Buyer B starts off at a higher purchase price, which means it will take longer to see returns on their investment.
Thinking Outside the Box
The lesson here? Don’t let the headlines dictate your buying decisions. The true “deal” in real estate often comes from looking beyond the obvious.
Buying in a quieter market, when competition is lower, offers advantages that are harder to see on the surface but incredibly impactful in the long term. Less competition means more room to negotiate—not just on price, but on terms like closing dates, inspections, and inclusions. It means less stress, fewer bidding wars, and more control over one of the most important decisions you’ll ever make.
A Better Strategy for Homebuyers
If you’re serious about buying a home, now might be the perfect time to act. Instead of waiting for the “sale” that everyone else is chasing, consider the benefits of buying when the market is quieter. Focus on the long-term value of the home you’re purchasing, rather than just the monthly payment.
Sure, interest rates are a factor—but they’re not the whole story. Remember, interest rates can always be renegotiated through refinancing if they drop further in the future. The price you pay for your home, however, is locked in the moment you sign on the dotted line.
Black Friday reminds us of an important truth: the crowd doesn’t always get it right. Just as savvy shoppers score the best deals by thinking ahead and avoiding the hype, smart homebuyers can find hidden opportunities by stepping off the beaten path.
So, instead of waiting for the housing market’s version of Black Friday, consider making your move today. The best deal isn’t always the one everyone else is chasing—it’s the one you find when you look at the bigger picture.
Ready to take the next step? Let’s connect and explore the opportunities waiting for you in today’s market. Your dream home might just be one bold decision away.